The demand for water use in Phoenix in 2003 hit a high of about 442 million gallons per day on June 27. Water use in the summer is normally distributed with a mean of 310 million gallons per day and a standard deviation of 45 million gallons per day. City reservoirs have a combined storage capacity of nearly 350 million gallons.
(a) What is the probability that a day requires more water than is stored in city reservoirs?
(b) What reservoir capacity is needed so that the probability that it is exceeded is 1%?
(c) What amount of water use is exceeded with 95% probability?

Respuesta :

Using the normal distribution, it is found that:

a) There is a 0.1867 = 18.67% probability that a day requires more water than is stored in city reservoirs.

b) A capacity of 415 million gallons is needed.

c) An amount of 236 million gallons of water use is exceeded with 95% probability.

Normal Probability Distribution

The z-score of a measure X of a normally distributed variable with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex] is given by:

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

  • The z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is above or below the mean.
  • Looking at the z-score table, the p-value associated with this z-score is found, which is the percentile of X.

The mean and the standard deviation for this problem are given as follows:

[tex]\mu = 310, \sigma = 45[/tex]

For item a, the probability is one subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 350, hence:

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

Z = (350 - 310)/45

Z = 0.89

Z = 0.89 has a p-value of 0.8133.

1 - 0.8133 = 0.1867.

There is a 0.1867 = 18.67% probability that a day requires more water than is stored in city reservoirs.

For item b, the capacity should be the 99th percentile, which is X when Z = 2.327, hence:

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

2.327 = (X - 310)/45

X - 310 = 45 x 2.327

X = 415. (rounded)

A capacity of 415 million gallons is needed.

For item c, the amount of water use is the 5th percentile, which is X when Z = -1.645, hence:

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

-1.645 = (X - 310)/45

X - 310 = -1.645 x 45

X = 236.

An amount of 236 million gallons of water use is exceeded with 95% probability.

More can be learned about the normal distribution at https://brainly.com/question/15181104

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