Based on the conditions of water shortages in Uzbekistan, the most likely scenario depicted is the Neo-Malthus Theory.
This is a theory that posits that resources on Earth are limited and if we do not control the population, resources will become scarce and threaten our survival.
In the above scenario, the increased population of Uzbekistan is most likely to blame for the water shortage and so are at risk of diseases which reduces their chances of survival.
Find out more on the Neo-Malthus Theory at
https://brainly.com/question/7478759.