A simple random sample of 6,250 history majors at U.S. universitites was taken. Almost all of them could correctly name Abraham Lincoln's second Vice President, but only 11.3% of them knew his first Vice President. If possible, find a 95%-confidence interval for the percentage of history majors at U.S. universities who knew Abraham Lincoln's first Vice President. If this is not possible, why not

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Answer:

The 95%-confidence interval for the percentage of history majors at U.S. universities who knew Abraham Lincoln's first Vice President is (10.5%, 12.1%).

Step-by-step explanation:

In a sample with a number n of people surveyed with a probability of a success of [tex]\pi[/tex], and a confidence level of [tex]1-\alpha[/tex], we have the following confidence interval of proportions.

[tex]\pi \pm z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

In which

z is the z-score that has a p-value of [tex]1 - \frac{\alpha}{2}[/tex].

6250 students, 11.3% knew Abraham Lincoln's first vice-president.

This means that [tex]n = 6250, \pi = 0.113[/tex]

95% confidence level

So [tex]\alpha = 0.05[/tex], z is the value of Z that has a p-value of [tex]1 - \frac{0.05}{2} = 0.975[/tex], so [tex]Z = 1.96[/tex].

The lower limit of this interval is:

[tex]\pi - z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}} = 0.113 - 1.96\sqrt{\frac{0.113*0.887}{6250}} = 0.105[/tex]

The upper limit of this interval is:

[tex]\pi + z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}} = 0.113 + 1.96\sqrt{\frac{0.113*0.887}{6250}} = 0.121[/tex]

As percentages:

0.105*100% = 10.5%

0.121*100% = 12.1%

The 95%-confidence interval for the percentage of history majors at U.S. universities who knew Abraham Lincoln's first Vice President is (10.5%, 12.1%).