A roller coaster is being designed that will accommodate 60 riders. The maximum weight the coaster can hold safely is 12,000 pounds. According to the National Health Statistics Reports, the weights of adult U.S. men have mean 189 pounds and standard deviation 63 pounds, and the weights of adult U.S. women have mean 165 pounds and standard deviation 76 pounds.
a. If 60 people are riding the coaster, and their total weight is 12,000 pounds, what is their average weight?
b. If a random sample of 60 adult men ride the coaster, what is the probability that the maximum safe weight will be exceeded?
c. If a random sample of 60 adult women ride the coaster, what is the probability that the maximum safe weight will be exceeded?

Respuesta :

Answer:

a. Their average weight is of 200 pounds.

b. 0.0875 = 8.75% probability that the maximum safe weight will be exceeded

c. 0.0002 = 0.02% probability that the maximum safe weight will be exceeded

Step-by-step explanation:

To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.

Normal Probability Distribution:

Problems of normal distributions can be solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the z-score of a measure X is given by:

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the p-value, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}[/tex].

For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.

a. If 60 people are riding the coaster, and their total weight is 12,000 pounds, what is their average weight?

12000/60 = 200 pounds

Their average weight is of 200 pounds.

b. If a random sample of 60 adult men ride the coaster, what is the probability that the maximum safe weight will be exceeded?

Men means that [tex]\mu = 189, \sigma = 63[/tex].

Sample of 60 means that [tex]n = 60, s = \frac{63}{\sqrt{60}} = 8.13[/tex]

Safe weight will be exceeded if the sample mean is above 200 pounds, which has probability of 1 subtracted by the pvalue of Z when X = 200. So

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

By the Central Limit Theorem

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}[/tex]

[tex]Z = \frac{200 - 189}{8.13}[/tex]

[tex]Z = 1.35[/tex]

[tex]Z = 1.35[/tex] has a pvalue of 0.9115

1 - 0.9115 = 0.0875

0.0875 = 8.75% probability that the maximum safe weight will be exceeded.

c. If a random sample of 60 adult women ride the coaster, what is the probability that the maximum safe weight will be exceeded?

Women means that [tex]\mu = 165, \sigma = 76[/tex]

Sample of 60 means that [tex]n = 60, s = \frac{76}{\sqrt{60}} = 9.81[/tex]

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}[/tex]

[tex]Z = \frac{200 - 165}{9.81}[/tex]

[tex]Z = 3.57[/tex]

[tex]Z = 3.57[/tex] has a pvalue of 0.9998

1 - 0.9998 = 0.0002

0.0002 = 0.02% probability that the maximum safe weight will be exceeded