Answer:
0.6522
Step-by-step explanation:
From the given information:
The probability of success i.e P(Success) = The probability of failure i.e. P(failure)
∴
P(Success) = P(failure) = 50% = 0.50
The probability P(additional information | successful) = 75%
The probability P(additional information | unsuccessful) = 40%
Hence, the probability that the bid will be successful = 0.5
The probability that the additional info| successful = 0.75
The probability that the bid will be successful provided that there is a request for additional information can be determined by using the Naive Bayes Theorem.
[tex]= \dfrac{P(success) *P(additional \ info \ | \ success) }{P(additional \ info)}[/tex]
[tex]= \dfrac{0.5 \times 0.75}{(0.50 \times 0.75) +(0.50 \times 0.4)}[/tex]
[tex]= \dfrac{15}{23}[/tex]
[tex]\mathbf{= 0.6522}[/tex]
