Respuesta :
Answer:
0.1402
Step-by-step explanation:
For each baby elk, there are only two possible outcomes. Either they survive adulthood, or they do not survive. The probability of an elk surviving adulthood is independent of other elks. So we use the binomial probability distribution to solve this question.
Binomial probability distribution
The binomial probability is the probability of exactly x successes on n repeated trials, and X can only have two outcomes.
[tex]P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}[/tex]
In which [tex]C_{n,x}[/tex] is the number of different combinations of x objects from a set of n elements, given by the following formula.
[tex]C_{n,x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}[/tex]
And p is the probability of X happening.
Biologists estimate that a randomly selected baby elk has a 44% chance of surviving to adulthood.
This means that [tex]p = 0.44[/tex]
Suppose researchers choose 7 baby elk at random to monitor.
This means that [tex]n = 7[/tex]
What is the probability that more than 4 elk in the sample to survive to adulthood?
This is:
[tex]P(X > 4) = P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + P(X = 7)[/tex]. So
[tex]P(X = x) = C_{n,x}.p^{x}.(1-p)^{n-x}[/tex]
[tex]P(X = 5) = C_{7,5}.(0.44)^{5}.(0.56)^{2} = 0.1086[/tex]
[tex]P(X = 6) = C_{7,6}.(0.44)^{6}.(0.56)^{1} = 0.0284[/tex]
[tex]P(X = 7) = C_{7,7}.(0.44)^{7}.(0.56)^{0} = 0.0032[/tex]
[tex]P(X > 4) = P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) = 0.1086 + 0.0284 + 0.0032 = 0.1402[/tex]
0.1402 probability that more than 4 elk in the sample to survive to adulthood.
Using the concept of binomial probability, the probability that more than 4 survive is 0.1402
Using the binomial probability formula :
- [tex] P(x = x) = nCx \times p^{x} \times q^{(n-x)} [/tex]
- p = probability of success = 0.44
- q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.44 = 0.56
- n = number of trials = 7
The probability that more than 4 survive can be defined thus :
- [tex] P(x > 4) = p(x = 5) + p(x = 6) + p(x = 7) [/tex]
Using a binomial probability calculator :
[tex] P(x > 4) = 0.1086 + 0.0284 + 0.0032 [/tex]
[tex] P(x > 4) = 0.1402 [/tex]
Hence, the probability that more than 4 survive is 0.1402
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