Suppose that in an election for governor of Oregon there are five candidates of whom two are women. A statistics student reasons as follows: the probability that a woman will win the election is equal to 2/5. What is wrong with this reasoning?

If in an Oregon state gubernatorial election, 2 of the 5 candidates are women, and a statistics student establishes that there is a 2/5 chance that the person elected for governor is a woman, this reasoning will be wrong.

This will be the case because not all candidates have the same amount of votes, that is, not all start with the same conditions: thus, there are more popular candidates than others, who will have greater probabilities of being elected as governors, regardless of their sexual identity.

Suppose that in an election for governor of Oregon there are five candidates of whom two are women. A statistics student reasons as follows: the probability that a woman will win the election is equal to 2/5. What is wrong with this reasoning?​

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Suppose that in an election for governor of Oregon there are five candidates of whom two are women. A statistics student reasons as follows: the probability that a woman will win the election is equal to 2/5. What is wrong with this reasoning?