Respuesta :
Answer:
96.6% probability that the mean of a sample would differ from the population mean by less than 126 miles
Step-by-step explanation:
To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.
A reminder is that the standard deviation is the square root of the variance.
Normal probability distribution
When the distribution is normal, we use the z-score formula.
In a set with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the zscore of a measure X is given by:
[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}[/tex].
For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.
In this question:
[tex]\mu = 3639, \sigma = \sqrt{145161} = 381, n = 41, s = \frac{381}{\sqrt{41}} = 59.5[/tex]
Probability that the mean of the sample would differ from the population mean by less than 126 miles
This is the pvalue of Z when X = 3639 + 126 = 3765 subtracted by the pvalue of Z when X = 3639 - 126 = 3513. So
X = 3765
[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]
By the Central Limit Theorem
[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}[/tex]
[tex]Z = \frac{3765 - 3639}{59.5}[/tex]
[tex]Z = 2.12[/tex]
[tex]Z = 2.12[/tex] has a pvalue of 0.983
X = 3513
[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}[/tex]
[tex]Z = \frac{3513 - 3639}{59.5}[/tex]
[tex]Z = -2.12[/tex]
[tex]Z = -2.12[/tex] has a pvalue of 0.017
0.983 - 0.017 = 0.966
96.6% probability that the mean of a sample would differ from the population mean by less than 126 miles
