On discovering that her family had a 70% risk of heart attack, Erin took a treadmill test to check her own potential of having a heart attack. The doctors told her that the reliability of the stress test is 67%. The test predicted that Erin will not have a heart attack. What is the probability after the test was taken that she will not have a heart attack?

A.) 0.099
B.) 0.201
C.) 0.231
D.) 0.469

Respuesta :

Answer:

I don't know what the answer is, but the test say B. 201 is wrong

Step-by-step explanation:

The probability after the test was taken that she will not have a heart attack is 0.4653 or 46.53%.

What is Bayes' theorem?

Suppose that there are two events A and B. Then suppose the conditional probability are:

P(A|B) = probability of occurrence of A given B has already occurred.

P(B|A) = probability of occurrence of B given A has already occurred.

Then, according to Bayes' theorem, we have:

[tex]\rm P(A|B) = \dfrac{P(B|A)P(A)}{P(B)}[/tex]

(assuming the P(B) is not 0)

On discovering that her family had a 70% risk of heart attack, Erin took a treadmill test to check her own potential of having a heart attack.

The doctors told her that the reliability of the stress test is 67%.

Applying the Bayes theorem,

P(No heart attack| correctly tested)

= P(No heart attack| correctly tested) P(correctly tested)/ P(No heart         attack)

= 0.67 x 0.3 / 0.432

= 0.465

The probability after the test was taken that she will not have a heart attack is 0.4653 or 46.53%.

Learn more about probability ;

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