A fair die, with its faces numbered from 1 to 6, is one in which each number is equally likely to land face up when the die is rolled. On a fair die, the probability that the number 6 will land face up is 16. A group of students wanted to investigate a claim about manipulating a fair die so that it favors one outcome. The claim states that if a fair die is put into an oven and baked at 200°F for 10 minutes, the inside of the die will begin to melt. When the die cools, the inside will be solid again, but with more weight toward the bottom. This shift in weight will cause the face that was up when the die cooled to land up more often that the other faces.

The students obtained a fair die and baked it according to the preceding directions. The die cooled with the number 6 face up. After the die cooled, they rolled the die 200 times, and the number 6 landed face up 43 times. Let p represent the population proportion of times the number 6 will land face up on the baked die if the die could be rolled an infinite number of times.

(a) Clarke, one of the students, constructed a 95 percent confidence interval for p as 0.215±0.057. Does the interval provide convincing statistical evidence that the number 6 will land face up more often on the baked die than on a fair die? Explain your reasoning.

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Step-by-step explanation:

With a fair die, the probability of rolling a 6 is 1/6 or 0.167.

For the baked die, the low end of the confidence interval is 0.215 − 0.057 = 0.158.

Since 0.167 is within the range of the confidence interval, there is not convincing statistical evidence that a baked die will have a higher probability of rolling a 6 than a fair die.

You can use testing of hypothesis here.

No, the confidence interval laid down by Clarke doesn't provide convincing evidence that the number 6 will land face up more often on the baked die than on a fair die.

How to form the hypothesis and test it?

The question asks for comparison between probability of obtaining 6 on baked die vs on fair die.

The given confidence interval's lower limit is 0.215 - 0.057 = 0.158

The upper limit is 0.215 + 0.057 = 0.272

The probability of obtaining 6 on a fair die is 0.167 which lies inside this confidence interval.

The null hypothesis states that there is no difference between baked die's 6 outputting probability and the old die's 6 outputting probability.

Since the probability of obtaining 6 is lying inside the CI of baked die's 6 outputting probability, thus we can't reject null hypothesis on level of significance = 1- 0.95 = 0.05.

Thus, the confidence interval laid down by Clarke doesn't provide convincing evidence that the number 6 will land face up more often on the baked die than on a fair die.

Learn more about confidence interval here:

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