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Using the data set below, what would be the forecast for period 5 using the exponential smoothing method? Assume the forecast for period 4 is 14000. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.4 (Choose the closest answer.)
Period
Actual Demand
1 10000
2 12400
3 13250
4 14750
5 15220
6 18500

a. 12660
b. 13190
c. 14300
d. 15220

Respuesta :

Answer:

The answer is C: 14300

Note: The actual answer is 14296, and the closest to that was option C.

Explanation:

Formula to calculate forecast using Exponential smoothing:

  •    [tex]F_{t} = F_{t-1} + \alpha ( A_{t-1} - F_{t-1} )[/tex]

Where,

  • [tex]F_{t}[/tex] = New Forecast
  • [tex]F_{t-1}[/tex] = Previous period's forecast.
  • [tex]\alpha[/tex] = Smoothing Constant
  • [tex]A_{t-1}[/tex] = Previous period's Actual Demand.
  1. Calculating the forecast for period 5:

Data:

  • [tex]F_{5} = ?[/tex]
  • [tex]F_{t-1} = 14000[/tex]
  • [tex]\alpha = 0.4[/tex]
  • [tex]A_{t-1} = 14750[/tex]

Putting values in the formula:

[tex]F_{5} =[/tex] [tex]14000 + 0.4(14750-14000)[/tex]

[tex]F_{5} = 14000 + 0.4 (740)[/tex]

[tex]F_{5} = 14000 + 296[/tex]

[tex]F_{5} = 14296[/tex]

abiolataiwo2015

The forecast for period 5 using the exponential smoothing method is c. 14300.

Forecast for period 5

Using this formula

Forecast for period 5=Forecast for period 4+Smoothing constant of α(Demand- Forecast for period 4)

Let plug in the formula

Forecast for period 5=14,000+0.4(14750-14000)

Forecast for period 5=14,000+0.4(750)

Forecast for period 5=14,000+300

Forecast for period 5=14300

Inconclusion the forecast for period 5 using the exponential smoothing method is c. 14300.

Learn more about forecast for period 5 here:https://brainly.com/question/6991280

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