At the beginning of the school year, experts were asked to predict a variety of world events (for example, the province of Quebec separating from Canada). The experts reported being 80 percent confident in their predictions. However, their predictions were correct only 40 percent of the time. This result reflects a flaw in thinking called?

Overconfidence is the quality or nature of being excessive confident in the decisions and prediction. It causes the miscalibration of the probabilities.
Overconfidence and hindsight are two examples that shows the flaws in thinking through common sense.
As the experts were 80% sure about their own decision but ended up with only 40% of their correct prediction.
Overconfidence is also one of the error in the thinking.

lhmarianateixeira lhmarianateixeira · Answer 2 · 2022-01-25T11:44:54+01:00

In this exercise we have to have knowledge about percentage, in this way we can describe what will be considered as:

This result reflects a flaw is called overconfidence.

What is overconfidence ?

Overconfidence refers to a partial outlook at a situation. When you happen overly sure of oneself, you misjudge your financial worth, belief, beliefs, or natural or acquired power in a, and you bear sedative than you should likely the objective limit of the situation.

Overconfidence happen the status or character of animate object too much confident fashionable the resolution and declaration made in advance. It causes the miscalibration of the probabilities.
Overconfidence and retrospect exist two instance that shows the imperfection fashionable thinking through common sense.
As the master happen 80% certain about their own strength of mind or will but become eventually accompanying only 40% of their correct declaration made in advance.

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