In 2019, a marketing manager for New Balance’s Fresh Foam Zante shoe needs to forecast sales through 2021. She begins with the known totals for 2018 and adjusts for positive factors like acceptance of new high-tech designs and great publicity, and for negative factors like higher inflation and predicted moves by the competition. This type of forecast is referred to as _________________

a) trend extrapolation.
b) direct forecasting.
c) lost-horse forecasting.
d) linear trend forecasting.
e) a survey of buyers' intentions.

According to my research on different types of forecasting methods, I can say that based on the information provided within the question the method being used in this situation is called lost-horse forecasting. This refers to using a value as a base, then analyzing all the factors and how they can affect the base value before making a final forecast. This is what the marketing manager is doing by using the known total in 2018 as a base and adjusting for different factors before making a sales forecast for 2021.

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