Finding Gold in the Artic. A mining company is in negotiations for a contract in Northern Canada.
Preliminary geologic studies have computed the following probabilities for the site:
P(high-grade gold) = 0.50
P(low-grade gold) = 0.20
P(no gold) = 0.30
What is the probability of finding gold?
After exploring the first site, soil samples are taken noting the concentration of gold in soil. The probabilities of finding a particular type of soil identified by the sample are:
P(soil | high-grade gold) = 0.20
P(soil | low-grade gold) = 0.80
P(soil | no gold) = 0.20