It is the morning of the community-wide yard sale that Joe has been anticipating. According to The Weather Channel there is a 10% probability of snow in his area today. Which of the following best describes the most likely way the probability was determined?
Historically, in this area, it has snowed 10% of the time on days with similar meteorological conditions as today.

It snows 10% of the time on this date each year.

Historically, in the United States, it has snowed 10% of the time on days with similar meteorological conditions as today.

Historically, it snows 10% of the days during this month.