An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
P(High quality oil) =.5
P(medium quality oil)= .2
P(No oil)=.3
a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)?

b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test are given below. Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals).
P(High quality oil) =.25
P(medium quality oil)= .85
P(No oil)=.25

What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)? According to the revised probabilities, what is the quality of oil that is most likely to be found? - Select your answer -